Probability of Jesus Fulfilling Eight Prophecies
bearbear (#28)
145 Plays
#Old Testament ProphecyNew Testament FulfillmentEstimated Probability
1 Messiah to be born in Bethlehem of Judea (Micah 5:2) And Herod asked where Messiah had been born ... they answered Bethlehem (Matthew 2:4-6)~1 in 280,000 of people born in Bethlehem of Judea
2 Forerunner will appear and prepare others for Messiah (Malachi 3:1) John the Baptist, the forerunner of Jesus (Mark 1:2-8)~1 in 1,000 messianic figures had a forerunner
3 Messiah will enter Jerusalem riding on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9) Jesus enters Jerusalem riding on a donkey (Matthew 21:4-11)~1 in 100 kings entered Jerusalem on a donkey
4 Messiah will be betrayed by a friend (Psalm 41:9) Judas betrayed Jesus (Luke 22:21)~1 in 1,000 people betrayed by a friend unto death
5Messiah to be betrayed for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12) Judas sold out Jesus for 30 pieces of silver (Matthew 26:15)~1 in 1,000 chance 30 pieces of silver is cost of a betrayal
6 30 pieces of silver casted down and used to buy a potter's field (Zechariah 11:13) 30 pieces of silver used to buy a potter's field (Matthew 27:3-10)~1 in 100,000 chance the money was returned and used to buy a potter's field
7 Although innocent, Messiah will keep silent when on trial (Isaiah 53:7) Jesus kept silent when questioned (Mark 14:60-61)~1 in 1,000 chance that an innocent man would stay silent during a trial
8 Messiah dies via crucifixion (Psalm 22:16) Jesus was crucified (John 19:17, 18)~1 in 10,000 chance to die via crucifixion

Total Estimated Probability

1 / (280,000 x 1,000 x 100 x 1,000 x 1,000 x 100,000 x 1,000 x 10,000) = 1 / (2.8 x 10^28)

This is a conservative estimate because Jesus fulfilled far more than eight prophecies in the Old Testament, rather he fulfilled around 353 prophecies related to his first coming. See the full list here: 353 prophecies that Jesus fulfilled.


1. Micah 5:2 (ESV)
But you, O Bethlehem Ephrathah, who are too little to be among the clans of Judah, from you shall come forth for me one who is to be ruler in Israel, whose coming forth is from of old, from ancient days.
2. Matthew 2:4-5 (ESV)
and assembling all the chief priests and scribes of the people, he inquired of them where the Christ was to be born. They told him, “In Bethlehem of Judea , for so it is written by the prophet:
3. Malachi 3:1 (ESV)
“Behold, I send my messenger, and he will prepare the way before me. And the Lord whom you seek will suddenly come to his temple; and the messenger of the covenant in whom you delight, behold, he is coming, says the Lord of hosts.
4. Mark 1:4-8 (ESV)
John appeared, baptizing in the wilderness and proclaiming a baptism of repentance for the forgiveness of sins. And all the country of Judea and all Jerusalem were going out to him and were being baptized by him in the river Jordan, confessing their sins. Now John was clothed with camel's hair and wore a leather belt around his waist and ate locusts and wild honey. And he preached, saying, “After me comes he who is mightier than I, the strap of whose sandals I am not worthy to stoop down and untie. I have baptized you with water, but he will baptize you with the Holy Spirit.”
5. Zechariah 9:9 (ESV)
Rejoice greatly, O daughter of Zion! Shout aloud, O daughter of Jerusalem! Behold, your king is coming to you; righteous and having salvation is he, humble and mounted on a donkey, on a colt, the foal of a donkey.
6. Matthew 21:6-9 (ESV)
The disciples went and did as Jesus had directed them. They brought the donkey and the colt and put on them their cloaks, and he sat on them. Most of the crowd spread their cloaks on the road, and others cut branches from the trees and spread them on the road. And the crowds that went before him and that followed him were shouting, “Hosanna to the Son of David! Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord! Hosanna in the highest!”
7. Psalms 41:9 (ESV)
Even my close friend in whom I trusted, who ate my bread, has lifted his heel against me.
8. Luke 22:21 (ESV)
But behold, the hand of him who betrays me is with me on the table.
9. Zechariah 11:12-13 (ESV)
Then I said to them, “If it seems good to you, give me my wages; but if not, keep them.” And they weighed out as my wages thirty pieces of silver. Then the Lord said to me, “Throw it to the potter”—the lordly price at which I was priced by them. So I took the thirty pieces of silver and threw them into the house of the Lord, to the potter.
10. Matthew 26:15 (ESV)
And said, “What will you give me if I deliver him over to you?” And they paid him thirty pieces of silver.
11. Matthew 27:3-7 (ESV)
Then when Judas, his betrayer, saw that Jesus was condemned, he changed his mind and brought back the thirty pieces of silver to the chief priests and the elders, saying, “I have sinned by betraying innocent blood.” They said, “What is that to us? See to it yourself.” And throwing down the pieces of silver into the temple, he departed, and he went and hanged himself. But the chief priests, taking the pieces of silver, said, “It is not lawful to put them into the treasury, since it is blood money.” So they took counsel and bought with them the potter's field as a burial place for strangers.
12. Isaiah 53:7 (ESV)
He was oppressed, and he was afflicted, yet he opened not his mouth; like a lamb that is led to the slaughter, and like a sheep that before its shearers is silent, so he opened not his mouth.
13. Mark 14:60-61 (ESV)
And the high priest stood up in the midst and asked Jesus, “Have you no answer to make? What is it that these men testify against you?” But he remained silent and made no answer. Again the high priest asked him, “Are you the Christ, the Son of the Blessed?”
14. Psalm 22:16 (ESV)
For dogs encompass me; a company of evildoers encircles me; they have pierced my hands and feet
15. John 19:17-18 (ESV)
and he went out, bearing his own cross, to the place called The Place of a Skull, which in Aramaic is called Golgotha. There they crucified him, and with him two others, one on either side, and Jesus between them.